Oggi il suo paper è stato rilanciato da Eurointelligence (qualche migliaio di "policy makers" avrà mandato giù il caffé di traverso stamane):
"Is euro membership responsible for Italy's poor economic performance?
We came across this academic paper by Alberto Bagnai, who tries to give an alternative explanation to the decline in Italian economic growth. The consensus view is that this is due to a supply-side shock - a view he disputes. The paper is rather technical, but he is essentially saying that it was Italy's decision to join the eurozone, which resulted in an real-exchange appreciation, that was behind the persistent fall in productivity. The analytical framework he employs is based on a model by Kaldor, Dixon, and Thirwall in 1975 in which a demand shock can have permanent effects. In their conclusion, they point towards the set of policies that could get Italy out of the trap. He lists three:
1. A reversal of demand repression by the northern eurozone countries;
2. a reversal of the real appreciation in Italy;
3. a reduction of Italy's structural dependence on foreign goods and services;
He concludes all three are very unlikely to happen.
Postato da Mirco Tomasi in Goofynomics alle 28 settembre 2015 10:52